Tuesday, June 16, 2020


Dear South African readers,
Alan Winde
          The Western Cape Provincial Government is playing prediction games to produce shocking figures to PANIC us into believing that the number of Corona deaths will jump from the current 1008 to an incredible 9 300.
          In a front page lead story recently the Sunday Times revealed that our ANC National Government had not been putting us fully in the picture about its Virus plans because it did not want to spread PANIC.
          Alan Winde the Democratic Alliance’s Western Cape Premier has been getting these startling figures from Dr Sheetal Silal a senior lecturer in the Department of Statistical Science at the University of Cape Town. She is also head of the Modelling and Simulation Hub, Africa (MASHA).
          Winde it seems is putting more faith in maths than doctors and scientists to tell him what the Virus is likely to do next.  And what’s more it’s maths that is like the video games Minecraft or Simcity, according to Dr Silal.
          Her research ‘games’ involve mathematical modelling where she says you use a “virtual reality of how a disease might spread.”
          The UCT News quoted her as saying that her most surprising research finding was that it was only possible to eliminate malaria in South Africa if the incidence of it was dramatically lowered in our neighbouring Mozambique - hardly a dramatic conclusion.
          What is surprising is that with this as her background she has been called upon to predict the death toll among 6-million people when there must be numerous other people better qualified. 
          It’s like calling in an expert like her to tell you if you are likely to get Covid- 19 because your wife, who sleeps with you in the same bed, has got it. 
          Her maths calculations have revealed that the Western Cape death toll predictions, in other words guesses that have risen from 4500 to 6500 will now rocket up to 9300.
          She hedges her bets by saying: “This may not play out over the long term. What we may find is that the mortality rate may change in the coming weeks and will adjust our overall predictions taking that into account.”
          You don’t need to be any kind of expert to arrive at this kind of conclusion. Just about anybody could have told Winde that and saved the Province the cost of the doctor’s fee.
          According to her “Galileo said: ‘Mathematics is the language in which God has written the Universe.’ We can use maths to portray how a disease behaves, examine how we can intervene to manage it and even learn new things about its epidemiology.”
          Surely if God had anything to do with it we would not have a Virus like this that is bringing so much suffering to people around the world.
          Not to be outdone by the Western Cape the Eastern Cape’s Command Council has joined the PANIC Promoters with a guesstimate of 5500 to 6000 deaths over the next three months. They’ll have to get a move on as only 138 people have been killed by the Virus so far.
          Having watched the seven news channels that are available to me ever since this PANIC started I was amazed to see one of them interviewing a doctor a couple of days ago and he told us something I had never heard any so called scientist or expert tell us about the Virus before.
          His message was: We should be concentrating on the 98% of infected people who have survived the Virus and not the relatively small number who have died.
          Why are there so few people like him? Not only does he have the sense to realise the importance of this but he also has the guts to say it on television. I won’t tell you who he is in case he gets ostracised by the PANIC Promoters. They are very much in the majority aided and abetted by every government in the world, because you can’t keep populations adhering to a host of unnecessary Corona regulations without keeping them in a constant state of PANIC.
          And the proven way to do this is with unending, regular doses of Death statistics, both real and predicted.
          CNN recently carried a message on the screen before its news bullets telling us in effect that the only way to beat the Virus is with facts, nothing else.
          Well, predictions are not facts so if CNN is right we are being hoodwinked by governments that keep giving us outlandish guesstimates to frighten the hell out of us. What other purpose could they possibly serve?
P.S. Keep well. Unfortunately we will all be affected by the crazy PANIC that is devastating far more lives than any Virus. It’s hard to believe that MAN, the so called most sophisticate form of life on this planet could be stampeded into mass destruction by a Virus so small that nobody can actually see it.

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